“The world is on an unsustainable path”
Last week BP and BloombergNEF produced significant reports. BP looked at the statistical analysis of energy in 2018. The BloombergNEF report looks to the future and the path to 2050.
There are two very different messages.
Statistical Review of World Energy – BP
“There seems little doubt that the current pace of progress is inconsistent with the Paris climate goals. The world is on an unsustainable path: the longer carbon emissions continue to rise, the harder and more costly will be the eventual adjustment to net-zero carbon emissions. Yet another year of growing carbon emissions underscores the urgency for the world to change.”
-Bob Dudley, Group chief executive, BP
Off the pace
The rate of change is not in line with the Paris agreement timeline. Carbon emissions rose at their fastest pace last year since 2011, hitting a new record.
An acceleration in carbon emissions
The acceleration in carbon emissions was the direct result of increased energy consumption.
Global rise in energy growth
Connected to weather-related effects, families and businesses increased their demand for cooling and heating due to an unusually large number of hot and cold days.
Statistical Review of World Energy
For an in-depth look at the details and watchable and downloadable resources.https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html
New Energy Outlook – BloombergNEF
“The outlook for global emissions and keeping temperature increases to 2 degrees or less is mixed, according to this year’s NEO. On the one hand, the build-out of solar, wind and batteries will put the world on a path that is compatible with these objectives at least until 2030. On the other hand, a lot more will need to be done beyond that date to keep the world on that 2 degree path.”
– BloombergNEF’s analysts
Forecasting the shape of the global electricity sector out to 2050.
Focusing on the electricity system, the report combines the expertise of over 65 market and technology specialists in 12 countries, giving an insight into how the energy market will evolve.
Global power generation mix
Wind and solar make up almost 50% of world electricity in 2050 – and help put the power sector on track for 2 degrees to at least 2030.
Cumulative investments in new capacity by country/region ($bn, real 2018)
A 12TW expansion of generating capacity requires about $13.3 trillion of new investment between now and 2050 – 77% of which goes to renewables.
Solar and wind penetration in the energy mix
Europe decarbonizes furthest, fastest. Coal-heavy China and gas-heavy U.S. play catch-up.
Technology cost-declines since 2010
Wind and solar are now cheapest across more than two-thirds of the world. By 2030 they undercut commissioned coal and gas almost everywhere.
Scale of European generation, 2019 to 2050
Rooftop solar and behind-the-meter batteries help shape an increasingly decentralized grid.
Iberia intraday generation mix, summertime, 2019 to 2050 (GW)
Batteries, gas peakers and dynamic demand help wind and solar reach more than 80%.
Electricity generation by region (TWh)
Coal continues to grow in Asia, but collapses everywhere else and peaks globally in 2026.
Installed capacity (GW)
Gas-fired power grows just 0.6% per year to 2050.
Heat & transport electrification scenario
Making heat and transport electric lowers emissions.
Global electricity generation under 2 degrees assuming electrification of heat & transport (TWh)
Deploy additional zero-carbon technologies.
New Energy Outlook – BloombergNEF
See the full report and links to further resources
Further reading and reference article